The Investment House Commentary
We began 2018 with synchronized economic growth throughout the world, with average world real GDP growth increasing from 3.1% in 2016 to an estimated 4.1% in 2018. That might not sound like much, but the rate of increase from roughly 3% to roughly 4% in 2 years is 33% (!). In other words, world real GDP growth is accelerating. To read the entire report: The Investment House Quarterly Q1 18
Tax Cuts and Interest Rate Increases: Do They Matter?
As we bid farewell to 2017, we do so with equity prices broadly higher than at the year’s beginning, and long term interest rates lower. This occurred even as the Federal Reserve raised short term interest rates 3 times last year, to a recent range of 1.25% – 1.5%. To read the entire report: The Investment House Quarterly Q4 17
Tax Plan(s) and Earnings
With so much debate and speculation regarding the likelihood and potential effects of various tax plans, it’s easy to miss the point that any and all tax reductions are unambiguously positive for corporate earnings. To read the entire report: The Investment House Quarterly Q3 17
A Parting Of Ways?
As the table above and the chart below indicate, until quite recently, the path of equity and bond markets has been quite similar over the last three years – broadly higher. Only recently have bond prices moderated somewhat, even as stocks have surged ahead. To read the entire report: The Investment House Quarterly Q2 17
A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words
As the New Year has begun, the return of normal asset volatility which we have long expected continued and became more visible. However, as the graph below makes clear, the bumpiness in all asset classes – not just stocks – may well continue. Even after the increased volatility of 2015, major asset classes have yet to reach their 10-year averages. To read the entire report: The Investment House Quarterly Q4 2015