The Investment House Commentary

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Tuesday, 28 January 2014

For the fiscal year 2013, the gap in performance between the Barclays 20+ Yr. Treasury Index and the S&P 500 is over 45%, the largest such gap in asset class performance since the early 1960s. The question is: what significance does this have for the future? We think there are two basic developments we should expect.  To read the entire report, click here: The Investment House Quarterly 4Q2013

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Monday, 28 October 2013

Year to date, the gap in performance between the Barclays 20+ Yr. Treasury Index and the S&P 500 is over 30%. It is hard to know how far, and at what rate this readjustment will occur, but with 10 year Treasury rates still yielding below 3%, it is hard to imagine a large decline in interest rates.  To read the full report: The Investment House Quarterly 3Q2013

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Sunday, 28 July 2013

It has been exactly a year since we wrote about risk-aversion, the return-less risk afforded by most fixed income assets, and the relative attractiveness of equities (“Equity Assets Continue On Sale: June 2012”). Since that time, the Barclay’s US Treasury 20+ Year Benchmark Return has declined
9.33% while the S&P 500 has increased 20.60%. In other words, in only one year, the spread between bond and stock returns has been almost 30% (29.93% to be precise).  To read the full report: The Investment House Quarterly 2Q2013

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Sunday, 28 April 2013

One of the enduring topics in investment lore, and among the great controversies in investment practice, is the value and possibility of profitable market timing. It is a natural thing: after all, who among us would not be grateful for an insight or methodology which would, if not all the time, at least on balance, enable us to increase our investment commitments at propitious moments, and to decrease them at less propitious ones?  To read the full report: The Investment House Quarterly 1Q2013

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Monday, 28 January 2013

U.S. Equity markets were flat this quarter, with the S&P – .38%, as the election, fiscal cliff, and debt ceiling issues took turns grabbing media attention. As Shakespeare might have said of the financial press: “Sound and fury signifying nothing.” Meanwhile, 2012 S&P 500 returns defied the pessimists, logging a 16% annual gain, versus a 4.23% gain in 10 year treasuries, a flat performance in commodities, and a decline of 1.42% in the dollar index.  To read the full report: The Investment House Quarterly 4Q2012